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-- No strip today (travel) --

Your omniscient author in absentia:
Had to go out of town last minute. See you tomorrow, Tuesday.



nothing worth talking about anyways.



Tell me about it. Clay has to one of the worst 5th starters in all of baseball over the past couple month or so.

Plus, losing Timmy for a while really sucks. Right when he was in the zone.

And everyone else seems to be hurt, too.

Still, we have lots of home games over the rest of the season, many of them against not-so-good teams.

Nice to see old pal Gabe Kapler get the walk off jack yesterday ;D

While we're wallowing in misery, allow me to present my occasional Collingwood report:

We are (like, totally) fucked. 'Tis true that we won on Saturday night after a week in which three of our best players got banished (extra Shakespearian last syllable please) for
> getting shit faced and lying about it.
But that win followed 4 losses in 5 games after the fun win in Sydney and looking good for fourth. Right now if we make the '8' (playoffs) it'll be a miracle. It so (like) sucks.

Takes me back to the old, pre 2004, days when one could rely on both the boys of the northern summer and those of the southern winter to fuck up in around August.

Yeah, and Clay's gotta go down for a while, or at least get rid of the necklaces.

"> getting shitfaced and lying about it.

Takes me back to the pre-2004 days when the boys of the norther summer and those of the southern winter would sych. the heartbreak in August.

And, yeah, Clay's gotto go down for a while, or at least lose the fucking necklaces.

fucking links

Random Red Sox / Olympic related factoid. Jason Bay's sister is the star pitcher for the Canadian softball team. I wonder how fast she could throw a regulation baseball?

Well I was at the Saturday game - courtesy of a student's invitation. God bless mid-westerners. Sox (red) fans can stand up and hoot and holler during the game and sox (white) fans are rather good-natured about it. Absent Ossie bringing in Boone Logan, the outcome of that game might have been different. Lots of RSN members at the game, but not as many as in 2005. At least I got to see the team once this year. I am now placing my money on either the Twins or the White Sox for the wildcard.

Bob, I have to disagree. The Sox schedule is not favorable. It looks like the Central will grab two spots, meaning the Sox MUST overtake the Rays and fend off the Yankees. Check it out:
Red Sox games remaining -
vs. winners - 22
vs. losers - 10
vs. .500 - 12 (the Jays, who give us a hard time)

Twins games remaining -
vs. winners - 14
vs. losers - 28
vs. .500 - 3

ChiSox games remaining -
vs. winners - 17
vs. losers - 24
vs. .500 - 4

On a positive note, the Jays and Yankees have even tougher schedules. Unfortunately, Joe Maddon is not 0-16 in his last 16 one-run road games. I mean, once in a while it would be nice to win one here and there. Even 3-13 or 4-12 would have put us where we need to be. Tito should be embarrassed. I know I would be.

Well, paddy, your numbers are nice, but they don't hold up to the predictive statistics at BP.

As of this morning, the Red Sox have an 87.4% likelihood of making the playoffs, including a 31.8% chance of taking the East and a 55.6% chance of using the WC.

The White Sox and the Twins have a cummulative 6% chance of taking the wild card...they are basically battling each other for the AL Central spot and the West is a total lockdown for the Angels.

The LAAngels look like the team to beat right now.

Just sayin'...

let's keep BP in perspective - the cover of this year's bp has a pic of clay bucholz with a caption 'better than joba'.

that having been said, no way the sox don't make the playoffs. season turnaround starts tonite with jb on the hill.

granular_serene, while their PECOTA may have predicted in February/March more from Clay than we're getting right now, the postseason odds are recalculated daily using how we've done this season so far to predict how we're expected to do for the rest of the season. They then flip a coin for each game for each team a million times (the coin is biased based on prior knowledge about the two teams, home field, etc.) and report the outcomes from the final day of the season as a probability. 800,000+ times of the 1,000,000 tries, the Red Sox made the playoffs. That's more accurate predicting than using PECOTA to claim Clay > Joba in March.

unfortunately we're in a division where a gazillion coin tosses wouldn't predict what's happened with TB. we're thru the looking glass here...

masterson back to starting,clay to bullpen that smith guy back up in the pen and bartolo back in the rotation.

A gazillion coin tosses? No, but the April depth cards at BP had the Rays finishing up 90-72 (in third place behind the Yankees who are immensely under-achieving this year and the Sox by only 1 win at 91-71). At their current pace, they'll finish with a 98-64 record instead. The real decider as to whether the Rays will keep their pace are going to be the 6 games the Sox, Yankees, and Rays all have against each other left. The head-to-head records are 6-6, 6-6, and 7-5 (Yankees over Rays by 1 game so far).

If the Rays regress only 0.05 in WinPct, then BP's prediction of 90-72 will be dead on. The analysts by in large had the Rays wrong only because they over-valued how the Sox and Yankees (and partly the rest of the league) would respond to these new young Rays. The numbers coming into the season (which is what BP is giving you) said the Rays would be right up there in team record territory just as they are.

zzzz - I agree with everything you say except that I would send Buchholz down to Pawtucket (or, as I like to call it in this kind of situation, Aw'Fuckit). Masterson is a demonstrably better starter. Clay is clearly rattled and understandably so. He needs to be marinated a little more and tenderized (by the opposition) a lot less.

Kaz, I hear you, but I'm going with both the Twins and ChiSox making the play-offs, the Yankees having no chance and either the BoSox or Rays winning the East (probably the Rays, who have a better manager and better pitching - not to mention a nice lead - lol). The BoSox won't handle Jays pitching for 12 games, either. I watch several innings of every MLB game - the ChiSox impress me - their lineup is relentless. The Twins will play mostly feeble teams like the A's and Mariners. I don't see the BoSox teeing off on Garza, Shields, Halladay and Kazmir. We need some sweeps and this offense just isn't deep all the way through like it was in 2004 with Bellhorn, Millar, Mueller and Cabrera in the mix. One last thing. I've never seen an offense like this where most of the hitters aren't suited for any particular spot in the order. It bothers me that Youkilis really doesn't jump out at you as being any specific type of hitter. Same with Drew, Lowrie, Bay and Lowell. You can say it's good that they're flexible. To me, it just has become maddening that there's no continuity. I like the old days, where you simply knew that Remy should lead off, Rooster was a natural #2 hitter, Lynn was the best all-around hitter so he hit third, Rice was obvious for clean-up and so on. Tito should have picked one order and stuck with it. When the season is over, I think he'll look back and wonder why each hitter wasn't given a role to perform.

Intersting. Send Drew home with no outs so he can get hurt and thrown out by five feet.

Nice comeback win last night. Hopefully coming off the deck like that will be the start of a turnaround.

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