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Putting the pee in PECOTA

So let me get this straight. The Secretary of Treasury and consequent head of the IRS cheats on his taxes, of all things, for several years and Congress is like "WHatev. Yawn."


But, you know, a ballball playah gets caught using steroids and Congress leaps into action! Jeez.


Yeah, you know, national priorities and all.


Well, this'll cheer you up. The PECOTA rankings are out and look who is at the top of the AL East with 98 wins.


Yeah, well, that's all hugs and kisses until you balance it with Will Carroll's Team Health Report.


And that's not the kind of "red" we want with our Sox.


Ah, c'mon, you saying you have a problem with J.D. "Judged Disabled" Drew being backed up by Rocco "My Muscles Stopped Working" Baldelli who is backed up by Mark "Bad Back" Kotsay?


Looks like the Front Office is going to roll the dice in 2009 the way they did in '06.


Yeah, and that worked out well. Heh.



//We are ruled by people who have achieved the remarkable distinction of being both dull and frivolous.//

That certainly describes Bud Selig. And Patches Kennedy. And...oh well, I don't want to leave yet another long post.

Gotta love the Sox attitude as always ...

Sometimes you bet on snake eyes and get paid out 30 to 1, sometimes the house keeps your money. Either way it's a crap shoot. I'll stick with Silver until he's proven wildly inaccurate more times than he's not.

last time I looked, the WS wasn't played on the internets in February. just saying. midwinter priapism will strain your heart.


Is Miguel Tejada still relevant?

as i recall, last year the Tigers were going to run with it in Feb also.

I protect myself with pessimism.

The thing that strikes me is that the PECOTA thingy has us scoring more runs than the Yankees. Really?

I guess they are extrapolating Pedroia's numbers and have him knocking in 175 runs this year or something...

I'm not sure what kind of defensive input goes in to the model, but the Yankees are just frightening up the middle: Jeter and Cano who might turn one double play all year if they're lucky, and Damon in center who can barely get it to the cutoff man in less than three bounces with the wind at his back. And of course Posada can't throw anymore, and Cash can't hit... And can Matsui even walk without a cane these days?

The baseball gods just love punishing bad defensive teams. Should be a fun year!

//midwinter priapism will strain your heart//

Good stuff, LC. 'cept that it'll strain your heart right through October too.

in re: Selig - the guy is making more than most countries and yet MLB is laying people off. stay classy Selig you douche.

What is going on with the MLB? Alomar has AIDS and was raped by 2 mexican men? Sports just gets weirder and weirder.

Where did Pecota have Tampa this time last year?

SDU, here are the PECOTA predictions for 2003 through 2008.

Last year, the Rays were predicted to win 89 games and finish in third behind the Yankees and Sox in the AL East. However, it should be recognized that on average PECOTA has been wrong on the team win totals by about 4-5 games in either direction. Last year, it was off an average of 8-9 games per team (being off as many as 17 games for some teams and 2 games for others like the Red Sox)! 2008 seemed to have some tremendous aberrations in the PECOTA predictions which were completely out of trend with past year's predictions, however the AL East was their best predicted division with an average error of 5.8 games per team.


Yeah, I know, pitchers and catchers report today, but my nads are in a vise here at the day job.

I survived "Thursday, Bloody, Thursday" last week, but all the projects and deadlines I'd mentioned before still are coming due.

Until tomorrow, then, I hope...

"The thing that strikes me is that the PECOTA thingy has us scoring more runs than the Yankees. Really?"

what they've lost offensively is far more then what they've gained.

Understand, H.B. Surviving a layoff is great and all, but it means more work with fewer people.

Believe me, I get it.

However, it IS pitchers and catchers today. I hear Batshit is making a special appearance to throw out the first Neurosis.

Tell me about the day job stuff HB. I've been reading every day and the quality is still great, although I haven't been posting much since my day job has been short staffed for quite awhile. But hey, if you've still got a day job you're ahead of the game. Too bad we can't turn down $25 million and hold out for something better....

True, Paw. I once turned down a $15 million offer from Hill Holliday, thinking I'd get more at Arnold. BIG mistake.

yeah, once turned down a ham & cheese for a sausage w/ all the fixings...just got a cold bun w/ sriacha. not as good as it sounds.

Predictions on # of Penny & Smoltz wins?

Bob once turned down a goat when I initially proposed to him.... so I wouldn't bank on him accepting any compensation for anything...

But I DID accept the proposal from a goat.

Abby --

Is a goat the going price these days for a dowery? Only cost me two chickens and a bushel basket of pinion nuts when I got engaged.

My parents offered me up for skunk cabbage, but there were no takers. They upped the anty as much as possible and finally got a bite....

Her parents live close to Bob Kraft. Enough said.

The goat dowry was encrusted in diamonds and emeralds, and her anesthesiologit father (Doctor-Mister) gassed it for my BBQ pleasure.

eh-ehem... it was Diamonique and hydrothermal emerald gemstones...

//But I DID accept the proposal from a goat.// That reminds me of the old joke about 'Goat fucker Bob' - a life of great achievement but you fuck ONE goat!

Oh and thanks to Kaz - Pecota did quite well then.

I'll have you know, SDU, that my nickname is "Zebra Sodomist Bob."


"Who was the pitcher and who was the catcher?"

Bob, no one is here... evidently my father has gotten to everyone on the site, gassed them, and relocated them to the woods where they will awake disoriented

Did somebody say "pitchers and catchers"?

Otherwise known as "Wednesday", Abby.

Sun? Is that you Sun?

혹시 한국의 신사는 그보다 더 저를보다 찢어 봤어?

아니 호모

Who was the pitcher and who was the catcher

Are we back to the Alomar story?

Further on turning down $25 million. I was checking out the website for the "authorized biography" of Manny Ramirez. Looks like a real rush job. Laden with typos and self-serving nonsense. I see Amazon has already market it down to $16.50 from $25, and it's not even out yet. Maybe if Manny knocked his price down to $16.50 million from $25 million he might get some offers too.
What possessed a publisher to even take that book? I didn't know Scott Boras was one of Charles Scribner's sons...

Scribner's is the publisher. here's another of their news releases:

[not a joke]

My Two Polish Grandfathers: And Other Essays on the Imaginative Life
By Witold Rybczynski

so if/when Bob gets cold feet he can just go under the Williams Tunnel, turn the magical wheel and time travel

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